The pace of public investment execution in Cameroun experienced a dramatic collapse during the first quarter of 2026, marking a particularly turbulent start to the fiscal year. By the end of March, ordered investment expenditures reached a mere 45 billion FCFA, a stark contrast to the 175.5 billion FCFA recorded at the same point a year prior. This represents an absolute decline of 130.5 billion FCFA, translating to a staggering 74.4% contraction year-on-year. Consequently, the implementation rate for investment credits outlined in the 2026 finance law fell to an unusually low 2.5%, even for a first quarter traditionally characterized by slow activity.
PROBMIS IA: a technical shift stalls spending mechanisms
The Ministry of Finance (Minfi) attributes a significant portion of this slowdown to the transition of budget management onto a new IT platform, PROBMIS IA, which became operational at the start of the fiscal period. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (DPBMT) 2027-2029, drafted ahead of the Budget Orientation Debate, explicitly acknowledges that technical constraints arising from this system migration hindered the processing of financial operations. Current expenditures fared only marginally better, achieving an execution rate of 14.7% by the end of March.
The impact was particularly severe on investments funded through the country’s own resources, where the execution rate stood at a meager 0.3%. Investments backed by external resources performed slightly better at 5.2%, though this figure remains modest. Essentially, the entire spending chain became congested precisely when administrative bodies were expected to initiate their initial commitments for the year. The Minfi has taken responsibility for a slower-than-usual start to the financial year.
External financing: significant decline in disbursements
Compounding the technical friction is a less favorable environment for resource mobilization. Loans and grants effectively secured by the end of March amounted to only 137.5 billion FCFA, a sharp drop from 327.6 billion FCFA recorded a year earlier. This represents a decrease of 190.1 billion FCFA, or a 58% year-on-year reduction. This downturn affected both project-specific loans and grants, as well as general budgetary support.
In detail, project loans attracted only 39.4 billion FCFA against a quarterly forecast of 206.7 billion FCFA, resulting in a realization rate of just 19%. Donations stagnated at 0.1 billion FCFA, far below the anticipated 18.5 billion FCFA, while no budgetary support disbursements were registered during the period. This combination inherently impacts investments funded by external resources, whose timelines remain dependent on the disbursement pace of international partners.
Overall, the total budgetary resources mobilized by the Camerounian state reached 1,331.4 billion FCFA by the end of March, against an annual target of 8,683.9 billion FCFA. The realization rate was 15.3%, compared to 19.6% a year earlier. On the expenditure side, total ordered spending amounted to 1,547.1 billion FCFA, a 2.9% decrease from the 1,593.2 billion FCFA recorded the previous year. Current expenditures, excluding interest payments, also fell by 80.5 billion FCFA, settling at 566.1 billion FCFA.
Tangible risk for SND30’s flagship projects
The first quarter is typically a period of low investment credit consumption, owing to public procurement lead times and the gradual ramp-up of construction projects. However, the magnitude of the observed decline this year far exceeds usual patterns. Should such a delay persist, it would place significant strain on the timelines of critical infrastructure projects outlined in the National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30).
Sectors heavily reliant on public contracts are now on the front line. The building and public works industry, construction materials, engineering, and transport sectors depend intimately on the state’s capacity to process capital expenditure within planned schedules. A sustained underperformance in execution would inevitably impact the cash flow of awarded companies and the dynamics of domestic economic activity.
The immediate challenge for Camerounian authorities is to swiftly resolve the technical glitches associated with PROBMIS IA and accelerate the mobilization of external financing. This dual adjustment capacity is deemed essential to recover the ground lost over the past three months and achieve the 2026 objectives.