Gabon’s public debt is projected to reach an unprecedented $15 billion by 2025, a peak level for the CEMAC economy. This escalating figure, emerging from a period marked by significant cash flow pressures and increased reliance on regional financial markets, confirms a multi-year upward trend. Libreville now faces increasingly narrow budgetary choices as petroleum revenues continue to be the primary determinant of the nation’s fiscal health.
A trajectory of indebtedness raising sustainability concerns
When measured against the national wealth, this financial burden is now approaching the Community Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) threshold of 70% of gross domestic product. Notably, Gabon, the fifth-largest economy in the sub-region, had previously built a reputation for prudent macroeconomic management throughout the 2000s. This situation has shifted dramatically due to the combined impact of the 2014 crude oil price collapse, the global health crisis, and the subsequent expansion of domestic debt held by local banks and on the public securities market of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC).
The current debt stock comprises a predominantly external component, notably linked to Eurobonds issued between 2013 and 2020, alongside a domestic debt whose weight is steadily increasing. Recurring issuances of Treasury bills and bonds on the sub-regional market have helped cover shortfalls, but at the cost of interest rates that strain the operational budget. In essence, each new fundraising effort drives up the average cost of the overall portfolio.
The delicate fiscal balancing act of the Oligui Nguema transition
Since assuming power in August 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema has prioritized the restoration of fiscal balance as a core objective of his economic agenda. The Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) has announced several debt audits, particularly concerning accumulated domestic payments owed to state suppliers and local authorities. The primary goal is to identify contentious claims and reschedule those deemed legitimate, thereby freeing up treasury funds for public investment.
However, this endeavor remains constrained by the repayment schedule. The nation must honor several Eurobond maturities in the coming years, including a dollar-denominated bond nearing maturity, whose refinancing already presents a significant challenge. Libreville ventured into the international market in 2024 with a liability management operation partially linked to a debt-for-nature conversion mechanism, yet this did not fundamentally resolve the underlying financial equation. Ultimately, regaining credibility with investors hinges on clear visibility regarding the finance law and the resumption of formal dialogue with the International Monetary Fund (FMI).
Oil, manganese, and timber: Gabon’s revenue drivers
Gabon’s capacity to manage this financial burden is intrinsically linked to the performance of its export sectors. Petroleum remains the cornerstone of budgetary revenues, with production fluctuating around 200,000 barrels per day, experiencing a slight structural decline. Manganese, for which Libreville is a leading global producer through the Compagnie minière de l’Ogooué (Comilog), a subsidiary of the French Eramet group, contributes an increasing share, bolstered by Asian demand. The transformed timber industry, anchored by the Nkok special economic zone, completes this vital economic triptych.
Furthermore, authorities are banking on an acceleration of road and energy infrastructure projects to bolster non-oil growth. Key projects such as the Transgabonaise and various hydroelectric partnerships are expected to drive activity beyond 3% annually, a necessary condition to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. Without such a resurgence, Gabon risks further deterioration of its sovereign rating, following several consecutive downgrades by international agencies in recent years.
The budgetary roadmap presented for 2026 will therefore need to reconcile expenditure discipline, mobilization of non-fiscal revenues, and targeted debt renegotiation. This represents a demanding but crucial balance for the country’s credibility in both regional and international markets.