During a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, researcher Joshua Z. Walker shared a sobering assessment of the ongoing peace process between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. Walker, an Associate Fellow with Chatham House’s Africa program and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, weighed in on the potential outcomes should Washington’s patience wane regarding the protracted conflict in the region.
While disclaiming any prophetic abilities, Walker outlined two primary scenarios. The first envisions a regression to the pre-2025 state, before the United States significantly escalated its involvement in the conflict. This would mean a return to the volatile dynamics that characterized the region prior to Washington’s increased diplomatic efforts. The second, and more concerning, possibility is the continuation of the current deadlock.
It is this latter scenario that most troubles the expert. Walker emphasized that the longer the M23 rebel group maintains its hold over territories in eastern Congo, the more deeply it becomes entrenched. “Every passing day that the M23 continues to occupy parts of eastern Congo, they become more rooted,” he stated, highlighting the insidious nature of prolonged occupation.
He further elaborated on this critical concern, explaining that the mere passage of time functions as an exacerbating factor. “The real fear is that we will reach a point where, simply by the passage of time, we end up with a situation where a portion of the DRC effectively remains outside government control,” Walker concluded, underscoring the long-term implications for the nation’s sovereignty and stability.