The Sahel region, stretching from Mali to Chad, hardly presents itself as an economic haven. Far from being a magnet for foreign direct investment, the core economies of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger grapple with significant challenges. Mali, for instance, faces a young demographic with 47% of its 25.9 million residents under 15, limited arable land (only 25%), and a low Human Development Index ranking (188th out of 193 by the UNDP). Nearly 45% of its populace lives below the poverty line. Burkina Faso and Niger reveal comparable figures, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, enduring poverty according to the World Bank. These three landlocked nations, now under military rule, have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), reportedly with backing from the Kremlin, aiming to diminish residual French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was intended to usher in prosperity, a wealth they claimed was withheld by European powers. However, this has not materialized. In this complex landscape, two neighboring powers, Algeria and Morocco, are now extending their distinct proposals.
Morocco: an atlantic gateway for the Sahel
Morocco is advancing a significant infrastructure project, the Dakhla Atlantic port in the Western Sahara, designed to mirror the success of Tanger Med as a vital link to Europe. This ambitious endeavor, projected for completion by 2028 and operational by 2029, aims to serve as a primary entry point for West African trade and a conduit to the Americas. Rabat has already hosted the three leaders of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), presenting a compelling geopolitical proposition: a deep-water port potentially linked by a future railway system. This network would grant these three landlocked nations crucial access to the Atlantic Ocean, significantly boosting their economic prospects. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its ongoing dispute with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes. It demonstrates that its Western Sahara development plan can benefit the entire sub-region and that fostering economic growth can indirectly combat the pervasive jihadist groups plaguing the Sahel by offering hope and opportunity to its rapidly growing youth population. The Sahel’s soaring birth rate suggests its population could double within a decade, underscoring the urgency of such development.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe
Algeria, despite previous strained relations with Niger, recently re-established cordial ties with Abderrahmane Tiani, Niamey’s military leader, in mid-February. As part of this renewed engagement, Algeria proposed to commence construction on a segment of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline immediately after Ramadan. This ambitious project, originating in Nigeria, is now planned to traverse Niger before reaching Algeria. Spanning 4,800 kilometers, the pipeline is designed to supply natural gas to Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbons company, would oversee the construction within Niger and, notably, commit to training Nigerien personnel in its operation. This commitment to local capacity building distinguishes Algeria’s approach from that of certain other international players, such as China, who are often criticized for not adequately preparing local populations to manage their national resources.
Complementary visions, clashing realities
Discussions regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara have recently taken place in Madrid and Washington on February 23rd and 24th. Should this half-century-old conflict finally reach a resolution, it could pave the way for Algeria and Morocco to collaboratively address the Sahel’s volatile security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from exploiting the existing rivalries between these two influential regional capitals.
Jihadist extremism thrives amidst the twin scourges of profound poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently committed to disrupting this destructive cycle. Each nation leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its vast hydrocarbon resources and the technical expertise of Sonatrach, while Morocco champions its grand infrastructure projects and ambition to become a pivotal hub connecting Africa, the Americas, and Europe. These two distinct strategies, though inherently complementary in their goals for regional stability and growth, regrettably remain in opposition due to the unresolved Western Sahara dispute. This situation represents a missed opportunity for greater synergy.
It is worth noting that diplomatic tensions have surfaced previously; for instance, on September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga controversially accused Algeria of “supporting international terrorism,” to which Algeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Ahmed Attaf, retorted by condemning a “soldier’s tirade.”