The long-anticipated political storm in Senegal has finally broken. In Dakar, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has terminated the mandate of his Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, sealing an executive-level rupture that, until the last moment, seemed avoidable. The former head of government, founder and leader of the Pastef party, has responded by shifting his focus to parliament, where his party maintains a comfortable majority following the early legislative elections.
An unsustainable cohabitation at the top
The Diomaye-Sonko duo represented, since the March 2024 presidential election, a unique political experiment in West Africa. The substitute candidate, propelled to the presidency after his mentor’s ineligibility, had pledged to govern as a tandem. The fragile moral contract relied on an equilibrium: institutional legitimacy for the president, partisan authority and militant support for the prime minister. This structure, praised by supporters as a democratic innovation, carried within it the seeds of its own dissolution.
Over the months, tensions mounted over reform implementation, the handling of judicial cases inherited from Macky Sall’s administration, economic policy, and the pace of campaign promises. As the president asserted his authority, the prime minister’s space diminished. Senegal’s constitutional verticality, which places the head of state above all others, left little room for a duumvirate where both claimed a share of the 2024 popular sovereignty.
Sonko’s strategic retreat to the National Assembly
Though removed from the Prime Minister’s office, Ousmane Sonko has not disappeared from the political stage. The Pastef leader retains a critical advantage: control of the parliamentary majority secured in the legislative elections. By anchoring himself in the National Assembly, he transforms the chamber into a political command center and a lever for institutional opposition against the presidential palace. This maneuver echoes the paths taken by several African leaders who, sidelined from the executive, turned parliament into a lasting platform for influence.
This new configuration places President Bassirou Diomaye Faye in a precarious position. The head of state must now navigate a parliamentary majority still loyal to his former prime minister, severely constraining his legislative maneuverability. The appointment of a new government, the adoption of upcoming budgets, and the implementation of major reforms promised to voters now hinge on an unprecedented power dynamic within the ruling party itself.
What lies ahead for Senegal’s future
The rupture between the two men transcends personal conflict. It calls into question the coherence of the sovereignist project championed by Pastef, whether in renegotiating oil and gas contracts, revising the CFA franc, auditing public finances, or shaping migration policy. International partners, from the International Monetary Fund to investors in the Sangomar and Grand Tortue Ahmeyim fields, will closely monitor the institutional stability of a country long regarded as West Africa’s democratic showcase.
Regionally, this episode unfolds amid efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to mend fences after the withdrawal of Sahelian states from the Alliance of Sahel States. Dakar, which had assumed a mediating role under Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s leadership, may see its diplomatic influence weakened by internal turmoil. The critical question remains: will the president succeed in installing a new government capable of stabilizing the country, or will Pastef’s militant base, traditionally aligned with Ousmane Sonko, take to the streets to voice its demands?
Senegal now enters a phase of political uncertainty whose outcome will shape the face of the country’s second democratic alternation. The path forward will define not only the nation’s stability but also its role on the continental stage.