A New Wave of Military Takeovers
Africa has witnessed another military coup, bringing the total to nearly ten since 2020 alone. The latest upheaval occurred in Guinea-Bissau, an impoverished Portuguese-speaking nation ranked 174th out of 193 on the UN’s development index. On Wednesday, a group of officers seized control, announcing a familiar one-year “transitional period.”
The military has blocked the release of the presidential election results from November 23. The deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, has reportedly sought refuge in Congo-Brazzaville. Meanwhile, the main opposition leader, Fernando Dias da Costa, also claims victory in the election, as did Embalo, who was seeking a second term.
Now in hiding to evade arrest, Dias da Costa told RFI in a phone interview that the putsch was a fabrication orchestrated by military allies of the outgoing president to prevent him from having to concede defeat. “I am the winner,” he stated. “When Embalo realized he couldn’t win, he decided to transfer power to the military… This coup is a sham.” This theory is supported by several factors: a mid-November poll predicted a decisive victory for Dias da Costa with over 60% of the vote. Furthermore, the takeover was bloodless, and its leaders are known associates of the president. Embalo’s swift reappearance abroad lends further credibility to the idea of a staged event.
The Domino Effect Across the Sahel
This trend gained significant momentum in Mali, starting with a mutiny in August 2020 by soldiers opposed to the French military’s presence. This was followed by a second coup in the spring of 2021, when Colonel Goïta ousted the civilian president he had previously installed, staging two takeovers in less than a year.
A belt of military juntas now stretches across West Africa, with Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger all under military rule. In several of these nations, democratically elected governments were overthrown. This shift in Burkina politics and elsewhere has led to the expulsion of French troops, who have sometimes been replaced by Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group, now rebranded as the Africa Corps. A common thread among these countries is the persistent threat of jihadist insurgencies.
The security news from the region is grim, particularly in Mali, where one rebellion is nearing the capital. Beyond Bamako, large parts of the country are transforming into a de facto Islamic caliphate, enforcing the subjugation of women. For 15 years, Islamist groups affiliated with networks like al-Qaïda and the Islamic State have proliferated across the Sahel. The withdrawal of French forces has left a vacuum, leaving citizens caught between extremist violence and military dictatorship.
Further east, in Tchad, the military facilitated a dynastic succession in 2021, installing Idris Déby’s son after his father’s death. In Gabon, a 2023 coup followed the fraudulent re-election of President Ali Bongo, ending his family’s decades-long rule. However, the new leader, General Brice Oligui Nguema, shows little sign of relinquishing power. A similar pattern emerged in Madagascar, where youth-led protests ousted President Andry Rajoelina, only for the military to step in.
Beyond recent coups, several long-standing autocrats remain entrenched, including Teodoro Obiang in Equatorial Guinea (since 1979), Paul Biya in Cameroon (since 1984), and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda (since 1986). In these countries, and others like Rwanda under Paul Kagame, elections are often a mere formality.
Hope Amidst Turmoil: Democracy’s Enduring Strength
This succession of events paints a bleak picture, but it is not the whole story. Across Africa’s 54 sovereign nations, democracy shows remarkable resilience. A recent study titled Eppure, resiste (And yet, it resists), led by Tiziana Corda of the Milan-based Istituto Studi di politica internazionale, highlights that 2024 saw an unprecedented number of free elections that resulted in genuine transfers of power.
In countries like Sénégal, Botswana, Cape Verde, and Ghana, the popular vote has successfully held leaders accountable. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its long-held majority and is now compelled to form a coalition government, marking a significant democratic milestone.
Furthermore, the African Union continues to condemn these unconstitutional power grabs, with influential members like South Africa and Nigeria leading the charge. The continent’s youth—with 70% of the population under 25—are a powerful force for change, actively challenging corruption through vibrant citizen movements. This youthful democratic energy stands in stark contrast to trends in some Western nations, where disillusionment has led to an increasing appeal for authoritarian-style leaders, from Trump to Orbán.