The promising start to the cocoa export campaign—with over a million tonnes already sold under contracts for the 2026-27 harvest—could face disruptions due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, warn industry professionals and agricultural commodity traders. In response to stock regulation concerns, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC) in Abidjan has increased its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the forward price, according to sector sources.
Market momentum meets climate uncertainty
Côte d’Ivoire’s position as the world’s top cocoa producer has fueled renewed demand and tightened supply expectations ahead of the new season, which begins on September 1st. « We’ve already secured contracts for between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming campaign, but we’ve deliberately slowed the pace to exercise caution, » a CCC insider shared.
Trading outlook hinges on premium adjustments
Cocoa trading firms project exports between 1.1 and 1.2 million tonnes, citing the CCC’s premium hike as a strategic move rather than a necessity. « The market conditions allow the Council to adopt a firmer stance. They don’t need to lower the premium to secure deals, » explained a leading cocoa trading executive.
Climate threat looms over production
However, this upward trend could be derailed by El Niño, which may induce drought conditions in major cocoa-producing nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria—potentially crippling harvests.
Aging plantations and input shortages pose greater risks
Many exporters argue that structural challenges pose a more immediate threat than climate patterns. « El Niño is not the primary concern for production. The real crisis lies in the scarcity of fertilizers and phytosanitary products, » stressed a director of an Abidjan-based export firm. « Aging plantations and recurring diseases further exacerbate the situation. »