Cameroon is currently preparing one of its most significant external financing operations since its January 2026 Eurobond. According to the Caisse autonome d’amortissement (CAA)’s monthly public debt report for June 2026, the state intends to raise $690 million, approximately 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-component loan targeting international investors. This operation, however, unfolds amid a political climate that could influence market perception, marked by the extended absence of President Paul Biya – a factor international investors traditionally integrate into their sovereign risk assessments.
The head of state has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. This absence represents the longest observed since his ascent to power in 1982, fueling speculation within Cameroon regarding President Biya’s well-being.
Authorities continue to refute these rumors. The Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi, asserts that “the president is in good health and working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information claiming otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation aimed at destabilizing public opinion.”
Despite these declarations, questions persist. Several opposition leaders are calling for greater transparency regarding the president’s situation or are highlighting an institutional void. For international investors, these debates primarily feed into the assessment of political risk, a criterion examined alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies closely monitor political risk
Analyses from rating agencies reveal that this issue is not a recent development. In November 2024, Fitch Ratings highlighted that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” The agency maintained its B rating with a negative outlook at that time.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions approaching elections,” fragile budgetary governance, and persistent shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, deeming that “political destabilization risks linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining its Caa rating, while cautioning that “a chaotic transition could lead to delays in debt payments.”
Standard & Poor’s also underscored this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025, analysis. The agency noted that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to run for an eighth term in the October 2025 presidential election,” adding that the concentration of power and lack of prior presidential transition history maintained a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 prompted Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency believes that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has decreased, though not disappeared, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the position of vice-president. However, it is not yet known who will occupy this role, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have previously demonstrated their vigilance towards such signals. In early October 2024, a rumor announcing President Biya’s passing triggered a retreat in Cameroonian dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. These securities recorded a third consecutive session of decline due to uncertainty surrounding President Biya’s health.
Market analysts observed that President Biya has consolidated significant power, and a succession crisis could provoke substantial market volatility. Another strategist for Africa estimated that political uncertainty might challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and honor its commitments to international creditors.
Assets to reassure investors
The political context, however, represents only one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the public debt trajectory, the quality of the sovereign signature, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To enhance the risk profile of this issuance and boost its attractiveness, Cameroon is leveraging several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital, acting as financial advisor; the African Development Bank (AfDB); the Africa Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI), a multilateral institution specializing in trade and investment risk coverage; and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to reinforce the issuance’s credibility with investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Robust economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch projects an average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt ratio to 40.2% of GDP by 2027, and highlights Cameroon’s successful mobilization of $750 million on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed Eurobond.
The agency nonetheless emphasizes that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including developments in governance, public finance management, arrears clearance, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the political context. Just months before this new international issuance, President Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus introduces an additional element likely to influence the perception of Cameroon’s sovereign risk. While not, by itself, undermining the country’s capacity to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the conditions under which investors agree to finance this operation.