Gabon’s public debt is on a rising path, with projections in Libreville indicating it could reach 94.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. This escalating trend, initiated during the transitional presidency and now firmly established under Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s tenure, pushes the nation to a critical threshold, significantly surpassing the 70% of GDP convergence criteria set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC).
A debt trajectory that concerns financial partners
The rapid increase in Gabon’s outstanding debt clashes with budgetary discipline commitments made to multilateral lenders. Despite considerable oil revenues and an uptick in manganese prices—Gabon being a leading global producer—the nation’s public finances struggle to generate sufficient surpluses for debt reduction. A growing portion of state revenue is consumed by debt servicing, thereby diminishing the capacity for crucial investments in infrastructure and social services.
This trend unfolds as the International Monetary Fund (FMI) halted its disbursements under the extended credit facility in 2024, citing financial governance deficiencies and expenditure overruns. Without an active program with the Bretton Woods institution, Libreville is compelled to increasingly tap into the regional public securities market and seek bilateral financing, options that typically incur higher costs compared to concessional windows.
The risky gamble of economic recovery through public spending
Since assuming power in August 2023 following the ousting of Ali Bongo Ondimba, General Oligui Nguema has strategically utilized public procurement as a tool for political legitimization. Numerous projects, including road infrastructure, social facility rehabilitation, and housing programs, have been launched with a deliberate display of initiative, aiming to signal a clear break from previous administrations. However, this fiscal impetus has led to an expanding primary deficit and a build-up of domestic arrears owed to state suppliers.
Specifically, Gabon’s public debt stock is projected to surge from approximately 73% of GDP in 2024 to 94.3% by 2027, according to official budget documents. Such a rapid increase over just three fiscal years indicates a growing reliance of the national budget on borrowing rather than on internal tax revenue generation. Gabon’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which has historically been low for a middle-income country, remains a persistent point of contention with technical partners.
Budgetary sovereignty and signal to investors
For a sovereign issuer like Gabon, which participates in international markets through various Eurobonds, credit rating adjustments directly impact its financial standing. Rating agencies have already revised the country’s outlook multiple times, reflecting concerns over its uncertain budgetary path and its ability to refinance upcoming maturities. A sustained breach of the 90% of GDP threshold would likely lead to higher costs for Libreville’s external debt and a shrinking pool of investors willing to subscribe to its bond issuances.
Across the sub-region, Gabon’s situation is closely observed by CEMAC partners, who fear that an isolated fiscal slippage could destabilize the common foreign exchange reserves managed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Regional monetary authorities have repeatedly emphasized the urgent need for a return to sustainable debt ratios, particularly as Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and Cameroon also exhibit strained debt profiles.
The political credibility of the announced trajectory remains a key concern. The transition to a civilian constitutional framework, confirmed by the November 2024 referendum and the April 2025 presidential election, theoretically paves the way for the reinstatement of financial cooperation programs. However, the Gabonese executive must complement its infrastructure ambitions with a credible fiscal consolidation plan. This is a crucial prerequisite to prevent public debt from becoming a structural vulnerability for the nation’s economy in the medium term. The 94.3% of GDP threshold by 2027 is explicitly noted in official projections.
Further insights
Cameroon faces a 300 billion shortfall by 2027 without a new IMF agreement. The AfDB aims to expedite its portfolio implementation in Gabon. The BEAC introduces a unified QR Code for CEMAC payments.