A dramatic comeback bid after ten months in exile
Ten months after being ousted by soldiers, Umaro Sissoco Embaló is preparing to re-enter Guinea-Bissau’s political arena. The former president, currently in exile, has declared his candidacy for the presidential election scheduled for 6 December 2026. His return, expected on 4 October, signals a major turning point in a nation still grappling with the contested 2025 vote and the military’s enduring grip on power.
“I will be a candidate,” he stated, confirming his intention to return and run again. The December ballot is meant to formally conclude the military transition and restore an elected civilian government. Yet beneath this electoral milestone lies a far more delicate question: under what conditions can Embaló actually compete, and what role will he play in a political landscape profoundly reshaped since his overthrow?
How a disputed election led to a military takeover
To grasp the significance of this candidacy, one must revisit 26 November 2025. Just three days earlier, Bissau-Guineans had voted in a fiercely contested presidential and legislative election. Embaló, seeking a second term, and his main rival Fernando Dias both claimed victory.
On 26 November, as the electoral commission was due to release preliminary results the following day, soldiers seized control of state institutions. Embaló was arrested, and the electoral process was suspended. General Horta N’Tam, then armed forces chief and a close ally of Embaló, was subsequently installed as transitional president.
The junta justified its intervention as necessary to preserve national security and prevent an alleged destabilisation plot involving, it claimed, figures linked to drug trafficking. However, no public evidence has independently substantiated this accusation.
The coup also obliterated the electoral process. The commission reported that tally sheets, computers, and servers containing vote data were seized or destroyed. As a result, the official outcome of the November 2025 presidential election remains unknown to this day.
This absence of results continues to fuel controversy. Embaló’s opponents have accused him of orchestrating or facilitating the putsch to block the release of results that would have been unfavourable to him. Several observers have raised this hypothesis, but it has never been established as fact. The close ties between Embaló and General Horta N’Tam have nonetheless stoked suspicions.
A radically altered political system
In ten months, Guinea-Bissau has undergone profound changes. The junta organised a constitutional referendum on 30 August 2026, which, according to provisional results, approved a new constitution significantly expanding presidential powers. The president will be able to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and government and, under certain circumstances, dissolve parliament.
This reform came just months before the presidential election. The opposition, particularly the PAIGC, had called for a boycott of the referendum, denouncing a process conducted under military control. The vote was nonetheless declared approved with around 70% of ballots cast.
Another potentially decisive factor for Embaló: the new constitution requires presidential candidates to have resided continuously in the country for the five years preceding the election. It also imposes a deposit of 50 million CFA francs. These new rules could thus become a major hurdle for the former president, who has been in exile since his overthrow.
Can Embaló truly reclaim power?
The question now is less about his return than about his ability to convert it into an electoral victory. Several factors pull in different directions.
On one hand, Embaló retains significant political networks. His former party, Madem G15, remains a force in the political landscape, while several figures from his entourage continued to hold responsibilities during the transition. The military leadership itself is headed by a former close ally, even though the junta now claims to be conducting an independent transition.
On the other hand, his image is deeply controversial. His opponents accuse him of weakening democratic institutions during his term and governing amid repeated tensions with parliament and the opposition. Before the 2025 coup, the country had already experienced several political-military crises.
Crucially, one essential indicator is missing: the result of the November 2025 presidential election. With no official results published, it is impossible to assert that Embaló had a majority or, conversely, that he was on the verge of losing. The conflicting victory claims made at the time by Embaló and Fernando Dias do not constitute a reliable electoral measure.
The only certainty is that Embaló’s announced return opens a new phase of uncertainty. Its success will depend notably on his eligibility under the new constitutional rules, the effective organisation of the vote, the opposition’s ability to regroup, and the army’s stance.
December 6 could thus become a decisive moment for Guinea-Bissau. But before knowing whether Umaro Sissoco Embaló can reclaim the presidency, a more fundamental question remains: will the country this time manage to hold an election whose results are actually published and recognised by all political actors?
After decades of coups, institutional crises, and disputed ballots, that is probably where the true significance of the December vote will be decided.